but it turns out, the knicks are going to be better than i thought.  you always have to be careful about judging too much from a single performance, but watching the knicks play the nets in their first preseason game, iman shumpert looks like he’s going to be a stud, the difference maker at the guard that the knicks need.  the kid has moxie.  he’s a tough, quick, aggressive defender, confident shooter, and good decision-maker.  check back at the end of the season, but it says here that shumpert could very well be a key to a better-than-expected knicks season.

enjoy!

david thorpe and henry abbot talk about the mechanics of the pick and roll

oh man.  the curse of the clips rears its ugly head again.  so many commentators are saying that if you have the chance to do something special and pair two superstars you have to do it.  but it says here the clips are giving up too much to roll the dice, namely *both* eric gordon and minny’s 2012 unprotected first-round pick.  paul is said to be willing to extend his current contract an extra year to give the clips at least until 2013 to make this work.  the reasoning from the l.a. side is that having paul  will entice griffin to re-up, and that if griffin re-ups that will entice paul to stay.

but let’s think about this for a second.

you are facing a double injury risk.  if either paul, who already has knee problems, or griffin, who throws his body around with frightening – if exhilarating – abandon, gets hurt, what then?  what are the odds that they both end up re-upping?  and remember, given the compressed schedule this year, with sometimes three games in three nights, depth is going to be at a premium, and we *are going* to see a lot more injuries this year, particularly among 1) older players, 2) players who rely on explosiveness (griffin, paul), and 3) players who are already working with damaged parts (paul).  then consider that the  clips do what people think the revised roster can do, and they end up in the playoffs despite one of the two big guns getting hurt (i’m assuming that happens late in the year, not early).  then their own first-round pick is past the lottery, and unlikely to be anything like the kind of player they could get for minny’s pick.  eric gordon would be gone, along with that pick.  if things play out as it looks like they might, no eric bledsoe around to help spell paul and protect his knees.  no backup plan  (i’m not counting on randy foye or on mo williams), and no more assets/depth.  no kaman expiring contract.  nada, unless you count an overpriced ball-stopping caron butler or an overpriced deandre jordan…neither one is getting you the kind of reinforcements you need to contend.  now, given a scenario that includes an injury to one of the two, does griffin re-up?  paul?  you sure?  i’m not.

so to me, it’s looking like a huge gamble.  it’s a gamble i take in a second if the package includes gordon **or** the minny first-rounder.  it’s the kind of gamble you can take if you are the lakers, and can still attract marquee free-agents if it goes south on you…but if you are the clips, and knowing the injury curse of the clips, no way you should be including both…and shame on david stern for forcing the poor clips to empty the entire closet (word is the “league” wants bledsoe included).

****update****  - this just in…espn reporting that the paul-to-clips deal dies because the clips feel the price is too high….GOOD ON YA CLIPS…finally…a smart move…hold out…

to my mind, orlando, despite the weaker record, is well-positioned to upset the king and his court.  orlando has a very clear offensive structure and a nasty d.  in contrast, cleveland strikes me as a bunch of guys more than a team per se.  guys with talent, to be sure, but i’m never quite sure what they’ll go to when tested, whereas with orlando you get the sense that they have a much clearer sense of their go-to sets, of what they’re (all) going to do when things get tight.  of course, in cleveland, the go-to set consists of handing the ball to lebron somewhere beyond the 3-point line, and see what happens.  very often, what happens is good, ’cause he’s so hard to stop.  beyond that, in a weird way, maybe it’s hard to set up a defensive scheme for a club with an amorphous O like cleveland.  that said, orlando plays a very well-run, diversified offense.  they’re strong, and they’re deep, and every player seems very clear on his role.  i don’t get the sense that when things get tense they’ll start to question what they’re doing, while i think that cleveland may.  the bottom line is, while cleveland may be a favorite, i don’t count them a big favorite against orlando, and i would not in the least be surprised to see orlando return to the finals…

if that happens, the lakers may need to win out during the regular season to be sure that the finals end in staples ctr.  tonight’s game against denver represents their toughest remaining challenge, and so maybe, in an odd way, the lakers need to see this game as a must-win.

we’ll see…

oh…you say, i’m showing my lakers bias?  yeah, i guess so…in that scenario, i frankly think the lakers have a tougher test in the conference semi-finals than in the conference finals.  i admit it…i’d like to see l.a. have to face either denver or utah, not both.  that said, denver is a shadow of its former self right now, probably atttributable in part to the loss of george karl, but also due to kmart’s absence and the birdman’s decline.  well, they do say watch what you wish for…

any way it works out, it should be interesting, and fun…but speaking for myself, i want to see as many phoenix games as possible, and that’s not just because i think the lakers can handle those guys, but because i think they are still one of the most enjoyable teams in the league to watch.  they play hoops, not wrestling, and in the playoffs, i prefer watching hoops to watching wrestling.

in general, you can get a rough sense of whether and how much a team will move in the standings by looking at the schedule and counting the number of teams they have to play with better records (or, just better teams – use your own judgment) than them.  then do the same for the other teams vying for that playoff seeding.  if they’re close, don’t count on too much movement, unless the teams are dead even in the standings.  if there’s a big disparity in strength of schedule, maybe things are going to change. this doesn’t mean they’ll beat every “inferior” team and lose to every “superior” team (for example, just tonight indiana beat utah, philly topped atlanta, and, as i write this, the lakers are getting their heads handed to them by durant and the boys), but it’s a good rule of thumb.

in general, if you look at most teams, you’ll find that their remaining schedule differs by one or two “tough” games from those of their other contestants with ten to twelve games remaining.

not so for the heat.  for them, it looks like a cakewalk from here.  in the remaining ten games on their schedule, they have only a single game left against a team with a better record.  that would be the bucks, who the heat meet in milwaukee tonight.  after that, it’s a wasteland, with “tests” coming from toronto, detroit, indiana, minny, philly, detroit again, the juggernaut that is the ny knicks, philly again, and finishing up, at home, with the mighty nets.  true, six of the ten are on the road, but come on.

compare that to what the team in front of them, the aforementioned bucks, have to face.  after miami, they get: memphis, the clippers, cleveland (at cleveland), charlotte, phoenix, a possibly desperate (or possibly out-of-it) chicago bulls, then breathers against new jersey and philly, and then a nice triplet against boston, atlanta, and boston again, which should be especially fun as both boston and atlanta will be battling for playoff positioning.  so, even if we assume the bucks can take care of business against charlotte and  memphis (neither one a pushover), and we write off the clips, bulls, philly and nets, that still leaves five games against top teams.

the story is similar with toronto.  the traps will be facing denver, cleveland, boston and atlanta, in addition to miami, charlotte and that maybe-hungry-maybe-not chicago squad.  meanwhile, charlotte has a schedule more similar to that of the heat.  the bobcats toughest contests other than a game at home against atlanta are homers against toronto and milwaukee, roadies in new orleans and houston (who will play you tough always, anywhere, no matter what), and a couple against chicago.

so, given the strength of schedule, i don’t see even the surprising bucks holding on to that 5th place seed, despite the fact that right now they’re a full three games in the loss column ahead of miami and charlotte.  not to say they can’t hold on, just to say i don’t think they will.  that said, there is this caveat.  i haven’t seen them play lately, and if josh smith is right, they’re playing great ball.

so, my prognostication: miami fifth, milwaukee sixth, then charlotte and toronto last, with chicago still on the outside looking in…of course, charlotte might also be able to hop over milwaukee if they can win every game they “should” and don’t have a brain fart at the end.  with a larry brown team, it could go either way…great preparation, but too much stress.  that said, this charlotte team may be the perfect group of guys for larry brown…neither wallace nor jackson is liable to get too wound up by larry’s angst, and they set the tone.

anyhow, it should be interesting…not, of course, that i think any of the four can get to the second round, with the possible exception of a puncher’s chance going to whoever draws the celts.

the biggest trend is the divergence between the fortunes of teams that can realistically compete for a championship, and those with – let’s be frank – no hope.  what we’ve seen is no-hope teams letting great players go to top teams, trying to cut costs while they lick their wounds.  some of them may be planning to try to come back in one or more years, but most don’t look like they have much hope…

why?

because the best players out there are willing to play for the mid-level exception on teams with a realistic shot to win the title.

and that’s a short list: l.a., boston, cleveland seem like real threats, with outside shots in orlando and san antonio…with the recently reported signing of hedo turkoglu, pencil portland in as a dark horse, though realistically it seems like it will take them a couple of years to advance to the top tier, all that talent notwithstanding.

at the top of the list, there’s the lakers.  they’re going to have such an overwhelming talent advantage.  ron artest gives them something they’ve lacked for a long time: an imposing physical presence on defense.  while you might get some argument from gerald wallace’s ribs and lungs, there was not much in the middle for l.a. that made teams feel like they really didn’t want to wander into the paint.  unlike boston, who have two or more bodies converging, and usually making contact, with anyone who tries to get to the rim, the lakers frontline would frequently move out of the way when someone went hard to the rim.  that’s probably because guys didn’t want to foul out.  as the aforementioned gerald wallace learned, andrew bynum was willing to play that role, but too often in important games he couldn’t manage to stay on the floor long enough to make a difference.  odds are the young man, who seems smart and motivated, with a pleasant streak of nasty in his game, will learn quickly, and will improve.  but all that notwithstanding, in ron artest, the lakers now have a guy who will take it real personal if opposing teams are getting an easy path to the rim.  more importantly, they have a guy who can match lebron james and paul pierce physically at the 3.  trevor ariza is a quick, smart and committed defender, but he’s not going to wear out the tough 3′s in the league…he’ll stay with them, but he won’t beat them down.  artest will beat them down.  i’ll never forget watching him playing for sacto against a lakers team that had more talent but got pushed around nonetheless by the boys from the california capitol.

and i suppose it has escaped no one that in kobe, lamar (assuming they resign him) and artest coach phil jackson has a trio eerily reminiscent of jordan, pippen and rodman…but jordan pippen and rodman never had the likes of a pau gasol and andrew bynum to go with them.  if phil’s health holds up and if everyone stays a) professional and b) healthy, this could get ugly for the rest of the league.

meanwhile, the other cream of the nba crop all added key personnel, even if it doesn’t look like any of it will be enough to keep up with what l.a. has done.  jefferson in san antonio gives that team needed athleticism, without sacrificing the discipline that is its hallmark.  vince carter adds explosiveness to orlando and makes their starting five one of the best in the league…only problem there is, after you get past their big 4 of nelson, howard, lewis, and vince, the cupboard starts to look a little too bare…the departure of four guys who played important roles in the playoffs – turkoglu, courtney lee, marcin gortat, and rafer alston – is going to take a toll at some point, even if they get nelson back at full strength for the year.

as for boston, a lot hinges on the big ticket.  if he can bounce back physically (and if espn’s bill simmons can be proven wrong in his theory that garnett’s physical breakdown may at this point be irreversible) and if the lizards can convince rasheed to join them, they’ll look like a beast.  hard to see anyone doing much in the paint against that squad.  i’m among those who think that if garnett had been healthy we would have seen a repeat of lakers-celts in the finals, and at least right now, don’t see any reason why it won’t happen next year if the C’s stay healthy (big if).  they just have more experience, defensive toughness, savvy and composure than any of their rivals.  and they look to be deeper too.

meanwhile up in cleveland, lebron’s got some needed help, experience and physicality in the middle in his new big caddy: shaq (wish i could get royalties for coining the big caddy: shaq, but the big man has the right to his own name and nicknames).  but the upgrades in the other top teams will be too much for the land of cleve unless the cavs can pull a tall (preferably quick) lanky defender who can get his own shot.  there were/are a number of such guys in this year’s free agent crop – turkoglu, ariza, artest, odom – but the first three are all spoken for already and it’ll be a shock if the fourth, odom, doesn’t re-sign with the lakers.  the situation makes me think that lebron’s going to have to wait a few years to get his ring, and maybe even to get to the finals again.  here’s hoping he doesn’t sustain the kind of psychic damage that jerry west did, running year after year into the brick wall that was russell’s band of leprechauns.  lebron’s physical advantage is so great that you have to give cleveland a punchers chance, especially if they can get the top seed in the east and only have to play orlando *or* boston and not both in the playoffs.  still, i think the cavs have to rate behind boston, and maybe neck and neck with orlando in the eastern sweepstakes.  of course, if garnett turns out to be as fragile next year as he was this year, then give cleveland much better than a puncher’s chance…in the conference finals…lord help them against the stacked lakers.

the most intriguing move and the most intriguing non-move (so far) come from two western conference bridesmaids: portland and denver, respectively.

portland seems to have gotten exactly what it needed in turkoglu: an experienced guy who can take some of the ball-handling load off of brandon roy, who can get the ball anywhere on the floor and be a threat with it, who can get his own shot or make the right pass (especially over the defense), who will create match-up problems for most teams, especially when lamarcus aldridge is on the floor at the same time and most importantly, should be a great fit in terms of temperament on a team of guys who are proud and talented but not boastful.   and man, what  a deep, varied, and athletic bunch they are.  i think they’ll be one of the most fun teams to watch next year.

despite all that though, portland is a team that may need a year or two to work out how to beat the lakers in a conference finals, assuming they get that far.  and san antonio and denver are likely to have something to say about that.

denver however, may have taken a big step back, simply by having failed to take a step forward.  their big advantages this year were physical dominance and a newly poised offensive approach thanks to chauncey billups.  but the problem with billups, as started to become evident in the playoffs even though it was disguised to a degree by denver’s overall approach, is that his experience and ability can’t make up for the loss in phyical potency that inevitably comes with age.  it reminds me a little of rick “big daddy” reuschel when he took the giants to the ’89 world series.  an experienced guy who could dominate games against good teams, but struggled against great hitters and great teams, simply because he didn’t have the ability, at 40, to overpower the juiced up mark mcgwires and jose cansecos of the world.  basically, he couldn’t mix in a slowing fastball with his other stuff against those guys, and so ultimately couldn’t threaten them.

to me, that’s where chauncey is now.  he’s the perfect fit for a group of mostly young, strong but less than disciplined guys, but at crunch time, particularly against teams with quick guards, he may be at a bigger and bigger disadvantage.  in fact, l.a. is probably the nuggets best matchup because they have a guy at that position in derek fisher who’s not going to be able to outquick or outmuscle chauncey.  but with artest now in the mix, denver’s ability to physically dominate the rest of the floor against l.a. is substantially diminished.  and artest is going to match up very well against carmelo…in fact, it’ll be interesting to see if carmelo can maintain his poise against artest  in a hotly contested series against l.a., if it comes to that.

but, getting back to chauncey, it’s hard to see how he’ll stand up well against improved portland or san antonio squads, both of which have quicks at the 1.  we’ll see.

after the top six: l.a., boston, cleveland, orlando, san antonio, and portland, things start to look grim around the league.  one interesting stat will be teams’ combined record against the top six.  i may need to keep track of that next year…i’ll be impressed if any team not in that group can do better than .400 against it.  denver has the best chance of coming close, and given the number of teams in the league, the probability of one unexpected team fluking into a good record against them may be better than 50:50, but i kind of doubt it.

for the rest of the league, it’s hard to know how they’re going to keep their fans motivated to keep coming to games, other than to see the home boys try to put up against a fight against top six teams.

new york under d’antoni will undoubtedly be fun to watch because of the style.  ditto golden state (who, parenthetically, i think will be a lot *less* fun if they land amare stoudemire because i think his attitude will poison the team…the man should have a stronger sense of hunger and committment, as opposed to the idea he seems to drag around that he’s already arrived somewhere) .  and dallas fans are so in love with their team that they’ll show up and fantasize that they’ve got some kind of chance when the reality is that they’re going to be well-coached also-rans.  nuggets fans will have a chance every night but are likely to end up on the short end against the good teams, as already mentioned.  jazz fans will get what they’ve always gotten, well-prepared tenacious teams that will do well but won’t be able to get over the hump, and they’ll probably accept that.   in oklahoma city, they’ll root for the young guys and won’t worry much about today, thinking instead about someday a couple of years down the line.  one team that should be fascinating to watch is the charlotte bobcats, particularly if they get ai.  brown is the kind of coach who can get his team to play a sticky kind of game that will make it tough even on the best teams, and he may just have the talent to make it work this year.  in fact, if i had to pick a darkhorse candidate for the eastern conf semis next year, it’d be the bobcats.

but in atlanta, philly, chicago, phoenix, houston, new jersey, miami, new orleans, detroit, indiana…what’s there to look forward to? mediocrity or worse, and years of treading water (ok, in dwayne wade miami gets to watch something much better than mediocrity, but it says here there is no way miami can reach the conference finals, and serious doubts about the semis).   and don’t even get me started on toronto, milwaukee, the cloppers, the twolves and the rest of the scroungers making up the bottom rung.

nope, it’s going to be a long year watching top teams overwhelm everyone else, wondering who might be able to slip into the conference semi’s in the east and, if denver falters, in the west.  but once the conference semi’s start, well, now that’ll be interesting.

but already i think the default scenario for the 2009-2010 season is:

lakers (champs)

boston (eastern conf champs)

cleveland (eastern conf runner up)

orlando (eastern conf semis)

charlotte (? eastern conf semis)

san antonio (western conf runners-up)

portland (pushing san antonio to seven in conf semis?)

denver (western conf semis)

obviously, injuries or huge trades could change the situation, but for right now, i’ll start there.