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a couple of years ago the lakers brought in metta world peace (nee ron artest) and let trevor ariza go.  this made the team physically stronger, but slower.  why’d they do it?  to match up better with the celtics, who had mauled them in the 2008 finals, and looked to be the team they’d have to face in the finals again.  last year, kobe and the kobettes added  steve blake and matt barnes to the bench, otherwise stood pretty much pat, got badly scorched by every team with a quick, penetrating guard (which was more than half the league last time i looked), and were swept unceremoniously out of the playoffs by the dallas mavericks, who went on to win the title.

ever since, the thinking has been that the lakers need to pull off a big trade or follow the celtics down the path to the retirement home and nba irrelevance.  but anyone watching kobe et al these days will notice that despite their penchant to give up big leads, they are looking better and better, and more and more like a dangerous playoff team due to their size and passing.  they are going to be a bear when the game slows down to a half-court cage match.

still, they are going to get torched, badly, by teams that spread the floor, make j’s, and have quick penetrating point guards.  they need a quickster at the point, and they still don’t have it.   and until they resolve that issue, it is hard to imagine them competing for a championship.

as usual of course, there is a swirl of rumor around the lakers, of late centering on potential trades involving pau gasol and the notion that it now appears to be jim buss’ show to run, with mitch kupchak playing the role of gofer for jimmy b.

so who out there has what the lakers need, a quick point guard, and need what the lakers have, a top scoring, passing forward/center not known for his power game?  well, of course houston leaps to mind, but they’re probably not going to give up kyle lowry, because they’d need both lowry *and* gasol to be the force they want to be.  phoenix?  does steve nash still count as quick?  well, he probably can’t contain quick point guards much better than derek fisher, and besides, from all accounts kobe hates him, so we don’t even need to ponder the popular uprising that would happen in phoenix if nash got shipped to the lakers…not happening.

who else?  tony parker for gasol?  interesting…interesting…just think about tony and kobe making the party circuit…girls (and boys with girlfriends they want to hang onto) beware.  but in basketball terms, does san antonio do that deal?  hard to imagine.  splitter is no pau gasol, but would you rather have parker and splitter or gasol and splitter?  (hint: parker and splitter is the right answer here).  and how good would the lakers be with a quick guard but no pau?  hard to say, but i think the answer is, not good enough to get past whoever is best in the west by the end of the season, and almost certainly not good enough to get past the heat in a 7-game series where they won’t have home-court advantage.  if the lakers had a coach whose offensive sophistication and flexibility i had more faith in than mike brown, i might say that a parker-kobe-bynum triumvirate might make more sense than kobe-pau-bynum (especially because the lakers are much better stocked with bigs than smalls to fill in).  but as things stand now…well, i still don’t think it does the trick (the trick, in la, being winning a championship)…and again, i don’t think san antonio does this deal in any case.

how about pau for rondo?  that’s an idea bill simmons has been promoting a lot of late, having become fed up by rondo’s limitations (specifically the fact that you don’t have to worry about him making a j).  well, yes, but from the lakers’ perspective, why would you want to pair a mercurial pg with a flawed game who needs to feel it’s his team around a mercurial 2-guard whose team it really is, especially as the latter’s skills begin to erode noticeably in the years to come?  doesn’t work…i’d rather have parker, and they’re not getting parker, so lets just move along…

ultimately,  it seems to me that the lakers ought not trade gasol at all.  what the they need is to find a way to get aaron brooks from phoenix (brooks is a restricted free agent) when he gets back from china, without giving up any of their own “big three” (bryant, gasol, bynum).  according to john hollinger, brooks is a weak defender who can be beat laterally, and that’s true.  but in the playoffs, with some good coaching (and mike brown is a pretty decent defensive coach, whatever you think of his offensive limitations), he might be just the answer the lakers need to deal with opposing speed at the point.  certainly, he’d make for a better change of pace at the point than steve blake, and add an offensive dimension the lakers don’t presently have and badly need.

in all the gushing about the clippers win over lebron i didn’t think we heard enough about reggie evans.  evans gives the clips the physically imposing presence they were badly lacking at the start of the season.  you just know opposing players don’t want to get around that elbow-swinging, ball-grabbing (both kinds) brick of a guy.  til he got to la-la-land, it was getting old watching deandre jordan get pushed under the basket when the ball went up, or blake griffin getting whacked with impunity…both those things are still happening, but less, especially when reggie’s in the vicinity.  the clips stepped up tonight when evans got in there and started slamming guys.   it looked like it took some of the edge off the heat’s speed game.  and of course, it was one and done most of the time on the offensive end for the heat when evans was in there.  jordan earned his stripes too, with a bunch of key blocks at crunch time, but give evans his due…his presence was much needed.  and it brings up one other thing: the clips have a lot of good complementary pieces to go with their stars.  if paul’s knees hold up, watch out for the clips…

watching the heat play beat the c’s about the head and neck for a couple of hours tonight, i was taken with the play of miami rookie norris cole…he missed a couple of shots, but he handled the ball deftly at high speed, changed directions and speed sharply, got to the rim and finished well, and most importantly delivered the ball to the right places at the right times…good decision-making and understood floor spacing,  a stark contrast to the clumsy work of mario chalmers…wouldn’t be at all surprised to see cole starting at the point by the end of the year, with chalmers coming in off the bench…seems to me chalmers is a better 2 than a 1 anyway.

a number of stories have suggested that the knicks might contend this year as a result of the addition of tyson chandler, giving a previously weak d some much needed spine (and basket protection).  how many times will we have to hear how the knicks have the best frontline in basketball?  so what?  while getting chandler is a big step forward, it seemed to me that they didn’t have a prayer against top teams because of the lack of speed and skill at the guard positions.  ask the lakers, who had one of the best players in the league at the 2, along with a great frontline but regularly got torched by the top point guards in the league, how that works out.  ask miami how much they think mike bibby will be a difference-maker for the knicks (not).

but it turns out, the knicks are going to be better than i thought.  you always have to be careful about judging too much from a single performance, but watching the knicks play the nets in their first preseason game, iman shumpert looks like he’s going to be a stud, the difference maker at the guard that the knicks need.  the kid has moxie.  he’s a tough, quick, aggressive defender, confident shooter, and good decision-maker.  check back at the end of the season, but it says here that shumpert could very well be a key to a better-than-expected knicks season.

big ups to henry abbot and david thorpe at espn for one of the most interesting and informative discussions i’ve heard about basketball i’ve heard

enjoy!

david thorpe and henry abbot talk about the mechanics of the pick and roll

while thinking about the deal that sends the kitchen sink from the clips to the hornets in exchange for chris paul, the following line from j.a. adande’s piece on espn  today  leapt out at me: “ Paul has meniscus damage in his left knee similar to the injury that led Brandon Roy to retire.”

oh man.  the curse of the clips rears its ugly head again.  so many commentators are saying that if you have the chance to do something special and pair two superstars you have to do it.  but it says here the clips are giving up too much to roll the dice, namely *both* eric gordon and minny’s 2012 unprotected first-round pick.  paul is said to be willing to extend his current contract an extra year to give the clips at least until 2013 to make this work.  the reasoning from the l.a. side is that having paul  will entice griffin to re-up, and that if griffin re-ups that will entice paul to stay.

but let’s think about this for a second.

you are facing a double injury risk.  if either paul, who already has knee problems, or griffin, who throws his body around with frightening – if exhilarating – abandon, gets hurt, what then?  what are the odds that they both end up re-upping?  and remember, given the compressed schedule this year, with sometimes three games in three nights, depth is going to be at a premium, and we *are going* to see a lot more injuries this year, particularly among 1) older players, 2) players who rely on explosiveness (griffin, paul), and 3) players who are already working with damaged parts (paul).  then consider that the  clips do what people think the revised roster can do, and they end up in the playoffs despite one of the two big guns getting hurt (i’m assuming that happens late in the year, not early).  then their own first-round pick is past the lottery, and unlikely to be anything like the kind of player they could get for minny’s pick.  eric gordon would be gone, along with that pick.  if things play out as it looks like they might, no eric bledsoe around to help spell paul and protect his knees.  no backup plan  (i’m not counting on randy foye or on mo williams), and no more assets/depth.  no kaman expiring contract.  nada, unless you count an overpriced ball-stopping caron butler or an overpriced deandre jordan…neither one is getting you the kind of reinforcements you need to contend.  now, given a scenario that includes an injury to one of the two, does griffin re-up?  paul?  you sure?  i’m not.

so to me, it’s looking like a huge gamble.  it’s a gamble i take in a second if the package includes gordon **or** the minny first-rounder.  it’s the kind of gamble you can take if you are the lakers, and can still attract marquee free-agents if it goes south on you…but if you are the clips, and knowing the injury curse of the clips, no way you should be including both…and shame on david stern for forcing the poor clips to empty the entire closet (word is the “league” wants bledsoe included).

****update****  - this just in…espn reporting that the paul-to-clips deal dies because the clips feel the price is too high….GOOD ON YA CLIPS…finally…a smart move…hold out…

it’s really pretty amazing how bad the celtics closed the season.  they had a legitimate shot at the number 3 spot in the east, i.e. avoiding cleveland until the finals (if they made it that far), and a getting a first-round playoff matchup against the bogut-less bucks…but no…in a stretch of twelve days between april 2 and april 13 (yes, that’s 12 days, not eleven) they managed to post losses to the rockets, the knicks, the wizards, and the bulls (never mind tonight’s meaningless loss to milwaukee in which they rested the three green amigos).  that’s unconscionable!  the hawks had even left the door open by themselves losing a gimme against detroit and one against charlotte, although other than that they took care of business against the pancakes left on their schedule.  now, despite their record, the rockets are actually a tough team that brings it every night, so maybe that’s excusable…but the knicks, wiz, and bulls?  what, the celts frontline was overmatched by jo-no and brad miller?  well, perhaps the bostons couldn’t be bothered to put out, figuring that either way they were going to have to get through both orlando and cleveland, both on the road, in some order (barring a hawks upset that i doubt anyone is banking on), so why waste energy now?  or maybe they have some reason for thinking miami would be a better matchup than milwaukee, though bogut’s injury happened on april 3 so it seems hard to believe that they could think they’d have an easier time with the heat than with a depleted bucks squad.  no, the only thing i can figure is those boys are running on fumes, and frankly, it seems to me they are facing the legitimate possibility of not making it out of the first round…don’t get me wrong, they’re still the favorite in the first round, but do they have anyone who can contain dwayne wade?  i don’t think so.  give the heat a puncher’s chance, and plan on it going at least 6, possibly 7.  then assuming they stagger past miami, the worn out old men get to face a cleveland squad that will be looking forward to continuing the, um, conversation that garnett was having with lebron at the end of their most recent match.  i really cannot wait to watch that.  the cavs are going to hand those guys their leprechaun heads.  i am particularly looking forward to seeing how much fun rasheed has leaning against the diesel, earning all that money they’re paying him.

still much excitement left in the western conference between now and the end of the regular season.  case in point: tonight’s contest between l.a. and denver.  for denver, the game matters a lot in terms of where they’ll end the season in the western conference rankings, and in particular whether they’ll have home court advantage in rounds one and, possibly, two of the playoffs.  for the lakers, tonight’s game is important, but for a more subtle reason.  in the event they make the finals, it may affect on whose court the close-out game gets played.  of course, if cleveland is the eastern conference’s entry in the finals, it’s irrelevant.  but if orlando can beat cleveland, then the fact that orlando trails l.a. by only one game in the loss column as of today may be important.  the lakers have two games against quality opponents remaining with five left to play (denver and portland, with what should be “easy” games against the clips, twolves, and kings to fill it out), while the magic face only one, cleveland, with four to go (the others being the knicks, indiana, and philly).

to my mind, orlando, despite the weaker record, is well-positioned to upset the king and his court.  orlando has a very clear offensive structure and a nasty d.  in contrast, cleveland strikes me as a bunch of guys more than a team per se.  guys with talent, to be sure, but i’m never quite sure what they’ll go to when tested, whereas with orlando you get the sense that they have a much clearer sense of their go-to sets, of what they’re (all) going to do when things get tight.  of course, in cleveland, the go-to set consists of handing the ball to lebron somewhere beyond the 3-point line, and see what happens.  very often, what happens is good, ’cause he’s so hard to stop.  beyond that, in a weird way, maybe it’s hard to set up a defensive scheme for a club with an amorphous O like cleveland.  that said, orlando plays a very well-run, diversified offense.  they’re strong, and they’re deep, and every player seems very clear on his role.  i don’t get the sense that when things get tense they’ll start to question what they’re doing, while i think that cleveland may.  the bottom line is, while cleveland may be a favorite, i don’t count them a big favorite against orlando, and i would not in the least be surprised to see orlando return to the finals…

if that happens, the lakers may need to win out during the regular season to be sure that the finals end in staples ctr.  tonight’s game against denver represents their toughest remaining challenge, and so maybe, in an odd way, the lakers need to see this game as a must-win.

we’ll see…

well, with three to five games left to play, the western conference playoff rankings are still up for grabs, although a little stratification is setting in.  the lakers are five games ahead of everyone in the loss column, and have five left to play.  the 2, 3 and 4 teams right now (dallas, denver, phoenix) all have 27 losses, with the 5 (utah) with 28.  then there’s a huge drop-off of two games in the loss column for 6-8 (portland, san antonio, ok city).  looking at the schedule and the standings, i have a clear wish list.  i’d love to see portland beat dallas at portland on friday night.  after that dallas has the clips and sacramento, and then a toughie at home against san antonio to close the season.  if portland (or san antonio) can beat dallas, and if phoenix can win out (a tall order: they play @ok city, houston, denver, @utah), then phoenix would take the 2 spot no matter what else happens (since they’d have dealt denver and utah losses).  my dream scenario has dallas in the 3 spot, with denver and utah beating each other senseless in a first round matchup.  assuming dallas and phoenix can win their first rounders (no guarantee of course), that gives phoenix the best possible chance of getting to the conference finals…

oh…you say, i’m showing my lakers bias?  yeah, i guess so…in that scenario, i frankly think the lakers have a tougher test in the conference semi-finals than in the conference finals.  i admit it…i’d like to see l.a. have to face either denver or utah, not both.  that said, denver is a shadow of its former self right now, probably atttributable in part to the loss of george karl, but also due to kmart’s absence and the birdman’s decline.  well, they do say watch what you wish for…

any way it works out, it should be interesting, and fun…but speaking for myself, i want to see as many phoenix games as possible, and that’s not just because i think the lakers can handle those guys, but because i think they are still one of the most enjoyable teams in the league to watch.  they play hoops, not wrestling, and in the playoffs, i prefer watching hoops to watching wrestling.

for those interested in how the bottom half of the east draw is going to finish up, all i can say is, the schedule tells the tale.

in general, you can get a rough sense of whether and how much a team will move in the standings by looking at the schedule and counting the number of teams they have to play with better records (or, just better teams – use your own judgment) than them.  then do the same for the other teams vying for that playoff seeding.  if they’re close, don’t count on too much movement, unless the teams are dead even in the standings.  if there’s a big disparity in strength of schedule, maybe things are going to change. this doesn’t mean they’ll beat every “inferior” team and lose to every “superior” team (for example, just tonight indiana beat utah, philly topped atlanta, and, as i write this, the lakers are getting their heads handed to them by durant and the boys), but it’s a good rule of thumb.

in general, if you look at most teams, you’ll find that their remaining schedule differs by one or two “tough” games from those of their other contestants with ten to twelve games remaining.

not so for the heat.  for them, it looks like a cakewalk from here.  in the remaining ten games on their schedule, they have only a single game left against a team with a better record.  that would be the bucks, who the heat meet in milwaukee tonight.  after that, it’s a wasteland, with “tests” coming from toronto, detroit, indiana, minny, philly, detroit again, the juggernaut that is the ny knicks, philly again, and finishing up, at home, with the mighty nets.  true, six of the ten are on the road, but come on.

compare that to what the team in front of them, the aforementioned bucks, have to face.  after miami, they get: memphis, the clippers, cleveland (at cleveland), charlotte, phoenix, a possibly desperate (or possibly out-of-it) chicago bulls, then breathers against new jersey and philly, and then a nice triplet against boston, atlanta, and boston again, which should be especially fun as both boston and atlanta will be battling for playoff positioning.  so, even if we assume the bucks can take care of business against charlotte and  memphis (neither one a pushover), and we write off the clips, bulls, philly and nets, that still leaves five games against top teams.

the story is similar with toronto.  the traps will be facing denver, cleveland, boston and atlanta, in addition to miami, charlotte and that maybe-hungry-maybe-not chicago squad.  meanwhile, charlotte has a schedule more similar to that of the heat.  the bobcats toughest contests other than a game at home against atlanta are homers against toronto and milwaukee, roadies in new orleans and houston (who will play you tough always, anywhere, no matter what), and a couple against chicago.

so, given the strength of schedule, i don’t see even the surprising bucks holding on to that 5th place seed, despite the fact that right now they’re a full three games in the loss column ahead of miami and charlotte.  not to say they can’t hold on, just to say i don’t think they will.  that said, there is this caveat.  i haven’t seen them play lately, and if josh smith is right, they’re playing great ball.

so, my prognostication: miami fifth, milwaukee sixth, then charlotte and toronto last, with chicago still on the outside looking in…of course, charlotte might also be able to hop over milwaukee if they can win every game they “should” and don’t have a brain fart at the end.  with a larry brown team, it could go either way…great preparation, but too much stress.  that said, this charlotte team may be the perfect group of guys for larry brown…neither wallace nor jackson is liable to get too wound up by larry’s angst, and they set the tone.

anyhow, it should be interesting…not, of course, that i think any of the four can get to the second round, with the possible exception of a puncher’s chance going to whoever draws the celts.