no cap pro hoops

a couple of years ago the lakers brought in metta world peace (nee ron artest) and let trevor ariza go.  this made the team physically stronger, but slower.  why’d they do it?  to match up better with the celtics, who had mauled them in the 2008 finals, and looked to be the team they’d have to face in the finals again.  last year, kobe and the kobettes added  steve blake and matt barnes to the bench, otherwise stood pretty much pat, got badly scorched by every team with a quick, penetrating guard (which was more than half the league last time i looked), and were swept unceremoniously out of the playoffs by the dallas mavericks, who went on to win the title.

ever since, the thinking has been that the lakers need to pull off a big trade or follow the celtics down the path to the retirement home and nba irrelevance.  but anyone watching kobe et al these days will notice that despite their penchant to give up big leads, they are looking better and better, and more and more like a dangerous playoff team due to their size and passing.  they are going to be a bear when the game slows down to a half-court cage match.

still, they are going to get torched, badly, by teams that spread the floor, make j’s, and have quick penetrating point guards.  they need a quickster at the point, and they still don’t have it.   and until they resolve that issue, it is hard to imagine them competing for a championship.

as usual of course, there is a swirl of rumor around the lakers, of late centering on potential trades involving pau gasol and the notion that it now appears to be jim buss’ show to run, with mitch kupchak playing the role of gofer for jimmy b.

so who out there has what the lakers need, a quick point guard, and need what the lakers have, a top scoring, passing forward/center not known for his power game?  well, of course houston leaps to mind, but they’re probably not going to give up kyle lowry, because they’d need both lowry *and* gasol to be the force they want to be.  phoenix?  does steve nash still count as quick?  well, he probably can’t contain quick point guards much better than derek fisher, and besides, from all accounts kobe hates him, so we don’t even need to ponder the popular uprising that would happen in phoenix if nash got shipped to the lakers…not happening.

who else?  tony parker for gasol?  interesting…interesting…just think about tony and kobe making the party circuit…girls (and boys with girlfriends they want to hang onto) beware.  but in basketball terms, does san antonio do that deal?  hard to imagine.  splitter is no pau gasol, but would you rather have parker and splitter or gasol and splitter?  (hint: parker and splitter is the right answer here).  and how good would the lakers be with a quick guard but no pau?  hard to say, but i think the answer is, not good enough to get past whoever is best in the west by the end of the season, and almost certainly not good enough to get past the heat in a 7-game series where they won’t have home-court advantage.  if the lakers had a coach whose offensive sophistication and flexibility i had more faith in than mike brown, i might say that a parker-kobe-bynum triumvirate might make more sense than kobe-pau-bynum (especially because the lakers are much better stocked with bigs than smalls to fill in).  but as things stand now…well, i still don’t think it does the trick (the trick, in la, being winning a championship)…and again, i don’t think san antonio does this deal in any case.

how about pau for rondo?  that’s an idea bill simmons has been promoting a lot of late, having become fed up by rondo’s limitations (specifically the fact that you don’t have to worry about him making a j).  well, yes, but from the lakers’ perspective, why would you want to pair a mercurial pg with a flawed game who needs to feel it’s his team around a mercurial 2-guard whose team it really is, especially as the latter’s skills begin to erode noticeably in the years to come?  doesn’t work…i’d rather have parker, and they’re not getting parker, so lets just move along…

ultimately,  it seems to me that the lakers ought not trade gasol at all.  what the they need is to find a way to get aaron brooks from phoenix (brooks is a restricted free agent) when he gets back from china, without giving up any of their own “big three” (bryant, gasol, bynum).  according to john hollinger, brooks is a weak defender who can be beat laterally, and that’s true.  but in the playoffs, with some good coaching (and mike brown is a pretty decent defensive coach, whatever you think of his offensive limitations), he might be just the answer the lakers need to deal with opposing speed at the point.  certainly, he’d make for a better change of pace at the point than steve blake, and add an offensive dimension the lakers don’t presently have and badly need.

in all the gushing about the clippers win over lebron i didn’t think we heard enough about reggie evans.  evans gives the clips the physically imposing presence they were badly lacking at the start of the season.  you just know opposing players don’t want to get around that elbow-swinging, ball-grabbing (both kinds) brick of a guy.  til he got to la-la-land, it was getting old watching deandre jordan get pushed under the basket when the ball went up, or blake griffin getting whacked with impunity…both those things are still happening, but less, especially when reggie’s in the vicinity.  the clips stepped up tonight when evans got in there and started slamming guys.   it looked like it took some of the edge off the heat’s speed game.  and of course, it was one and done most of the time on the offensive end for the heat when evans was in there.  jordan earned his stripes too, with a bunch of key blocks at crunch time, but give evans his due…his presence was much needed.  and it brings up one other thing: the clips have a lot of good complementary pieces to go with their stars.  if paul’s knees hold up, watch out for the clips…

watching the heat play beat the c’s about the head and neck for a couple of hours tonight, i was taken with the play of miami rookie norris cole…he missed a couple of shots, but he handled the ball deftly at high speed, changed directions and speed sharply, got to the rim and finished well, and most importantly delivered the ball to the right places at the right times…good decision-making and understood floor spacing,  a stark contrast to the clumsy work of mario chalmers…wouldn’t be at all surprised to see cole starting at the point by the end of the year, with chalmers coming in off the bench…seems to me chalmers is a better 2 than a 1 anyway.

a number of stories have suggested that the knicks might contend this year as a result of the addition of tyson chandler, giving a previously weak d some much needed spine (and basket protection).  how many times will we have to hear how the knicks have the best frontline in basketball?  so what?  while getting chandler is a big step forward, it seemed to me that they didn’t have a prayer against top teams because of the lack of speed and skill at the guard positions.  ask the lakers, who had one of the best players in the league at the 2, along with a great frontline but regularly got torched by the top point guards in the league, how that works out.  ask miami how much they think mike bibby will be a difference-maker for the knicks (not).

but it turns out, the knicks are going to be better than i thought.  you always have to be careful about judging too much from a single performance, but watching the knicks play the nets in their first preseason game, iman shumpert looks like he’s going to be a stud, the difference maker at the guard that the knicks need.  the kid has moxie.  he’s a tough, quick, aggressive defender, confident shooter, and good decision-maker.  check back at the end of the season, but it says here that shumpert could very well be a key to a better-than-expected knicks season.

big ups to henry abbot and david thorpe at espn for one of the most interesting and informative discussions i’ve heard about basketball i’ve heard

enjoy!

david thorpe and henry abbot talk about the mechanics of the pick and roll

while thinking about the deal that sends the kitchen sink from the clips to the hornets in exchange for chris paul, the following line from j.a. adande’s piece on espn  today  leapt out at me: “ Paul has meniscus damage in his left knee similar to the injury that led Brandon Roy to retire.”

oh man.  the curse of the clips rears its ugly head again.  so many commentators are saying that if you have the chance to do something special and pair two superstars you have to do it.  but it says here the clips are giving up too much to roll the dice, namely *both* eric gordon and minny’s 2012 unprotected first-round pick.  paul is said to be willing to extend his current contract an extra year to give the clips at least until 2013 to make this work.  the reasoning from the l.a. side is that having paul  will entice griffin to re-up, and that if griffin re-ups that will entice paul to stay.

but let’s think about this for a second.

you are facing a double injury risk.  if either paul, who already has knee problems, or griffin, who throws his body around with frightening – if exhilarating – abandon, gets hurt, what then?  what are the odds that they both end up re-upping?  and remember, given the compressed schedule this year, with sometimes three games in three nights, depth is going to be at a premium, and we *are going* to see a lot more injuries this year, particularly among 1) older players, 2) players who rely on explosiveness (griffin, paul), and 3) players who are already working with damaged parts (paul).  then consider that the  clips do what people think the revised roster can do, and they end up in the playoffs despite one of the two big guns getting hurt (i’m assuming that happens late in the year, not early).  then their own first-round pick is past the lottery, and unlikely to be anything like the kind of player they could get for minny’s pick.  eric gordon would be gone, along with that pick.  if things play out as it looks like they might, no eric bledsoe around to help spell paul and protect his knees.  no backup plan  (i’m not counting on randy foye or on mo williams), and no more assets/depth.  no kaman expiring contract.  nada, unless you count an overpriced ball-stopping caron butler or an overpriced deandre jordan…neither one is getting you the kind of reinforcements you need to contend.  now, given a scenario that includes an injury to one of the two, does griffin re-up?  paul?  you sure?  i’m not.

so to me, it’s looking like a huge gamble.  it’s a gamble i take in a second if the package includes gordon **or** the minny first-rounder.  it’s the kind of gamble you can take if you are the lakers, and can still attract marquee free-agents if it goes south on you…but if you are the clips, and knowing the injury curse of the clips, no way you should be including both…and shame on david stern for forcing the poor clips to empty the entire closet (word is the “league” wants bledsoe included).

****update****  - this just in…espn reporting that the paul-to-clips deal dies because the clips feel the price is too high….GOOD ON YA CLIPS…finally…a smart move…hold out…

it’s really pretty amazing how bad the celtics closed the season.  they had a legitimate shot at the number 3 spot in the east, i.e. avoiding cleveland until the finals (if they made it that far), and a getting a first-round playoff matchup against the bogut-less bucks…but no…in a stretch of twelve days between april 2 and april 13 (yes, that’s 12 days, not eleven) they managed to post losses to the rockets, the knicks, the wizards, and the bulls (never mind tonight’s meaningless loss to milwaukee in which they rested the three green amigos).  that’s unconscionable!  the hawks had even left the door open by themselves losing a gimme against detroit and one against charlotte, although other than that they took care of business against the pancakes left on their schedule.  now, despite their record, the rockets are actually a tough team that brings it every night, so maybe that’s excusable…but the knicks, wiz, and bulls?  what, the celts frontline was overmatched by jo-no and brad miller?  well, perhaps the bostons couldn’t be bothered to put out, figuring that either way they were going to have to get through both orlando and cleveland, both on the road, in some order (barring a hawks upset that i doubt anyone is banking on), so why waste energy now?  or maybe they have some reason for thinking miami would be a better matchup than milwaukee, though bogut’s injury happened on april 3 so it seems hard to believe that they could think they’d have an easier time with the heat than with a depleted bucks squad.  no, the only thing i can figure is those boys are running on fumes, and frankly, it seems to me they are facing the legitimate possibility of not making it out of the first round…don’t get me wrong, they’re still the favorite in the first round, but do they have anyone who can contain dwayne wade?  i don’t think so.  give the heat a puncher’s chance, and plan on it going at least 6, possibly 7.  then assuming they stagger past miami, the worn out old men get to face a cleveland squad that will be looking forward to continuing the, um, conversation that garnett was having with lebron at the end of their most recent match.  i really cannot wait to watch that.  the cavs are going to hand those guys their leprechaun heads.  i am particularly looking forward to seeing how much fun rasheed has leaning against the diesel, earning all that money they’re paying him.